Wine importers are navigating unprecedented challenges heading into Q4 and what we are seeing is an inventory-sales disconnect which represents the biggest market shift wine importers have faced since the pandemic reshaped consumer behavior.
“Inventory levels jumped in October 24’ with inventory up 39% on the previous year. Despite these stockpiles – throughout the last holiday season Q4 sales dropped by 6%. Inventory levels are still high, and the supply has been disrupted by tariff fatigue”. [1]
The new EU 15% import tariff is now changing the economics of wine importing.
Importers are hesitant to bring in new inventory while carrying higher-cost existing stock, retailers are pushing back on price increases, and consumers are becoming more price-sensitive to premium wines.
Unsold cases aren’t just taking up warehouse space—they’re carrying a tariff burden that compounds the longer they sit. We have heard from our customers that the fact that tariffs must be paid upfront has created significant capital challenges, leading to additional cash flow pressures.
Unfortunately, the new tariff creates pressure to either absorb costs (reducing margins) or pass them to customers (potentially reducing demand). Some of our customers acted early to increase costs to stave off the likely impact, but others have held off ordering until tariffs have started.
Retailers and restaurants are managing tighter inventory levels, creating a ripple effect back to importers who built stock levels based on pre-2024 demand patterns and as we head into OND we are seeing traditional holiday buying patterns may be shifting, with buyers waiting longer to commit to inventory purchases.
What happens now.
The wine import business has always required balancing supply planning with demand uncertainty. The current environment—with tariffs fundamentally altering cost structures—makes that balance more critical and more expensive to get wrong.
Importers facing this challenge have several tactical options to consider:
- Reassess par levels based on current sales velocity rather than historical patterns before the end of the year
- Prioritize high-demand SKUs that have demonstrated consistent demand
- Consider promotional strategies to accelerate movement of slower products before year-end
- Evaluate carrying costs against potential markdowns, factoring in tariff expenses already paid, while focusing on products with the strongest margins to offset tariff it maintaining competitive pricing.
- Explore new distribution channels that might absorb excess inventory or offer better margin opportunities
The 15% tariff isn’t going away, so successful importers are already adjusting their business models. This includes rethinking portfolio composition, exploring alternative sourcing strategies, and developing pricing models that account for the new cost reality while remaining competitive.
We’re likely seeing a permanent shift in how wine importing operates. Companies that viewed tariffs as a temporary disruption are finding they need structural changes to remain profitable. This includes everything from supplier negotiations to customer education about the new price environment.
The companies that adapt their approach to this new tariff reality will be better positioned for sustainable growth once market conditions stabilize.
[1] Elenteny Systems Data downloaded @2025
